Jan Gromadzki

Publications

• When Populists Deliver on Their Promises: the Electoral Effects of a Large Cash Transfer Program in Poland. - with Katarzyna Sałach (University of Warsaw) and Michał Brzeziński (University of Warsaw). Economica, 2024. Link. PDF.
Show abstract
We estimate the effects of the introduction of a large cash transfer program on support for the ruling populist party in Poland. We exploit the variation at the municipal level in the annual cash transfer amount received per capita, and use a difference-in-differences research design to study the electoral effects of the transfer. Our results show that a cash transfer amount of \$100 per capita translated into an increase in the vote share for the ruling party of nearly two percentage points. One-third of additional votes came from new voters coming off the sidelines, and the remaining electoral gains were due to voters who had previously voted for other parties. The effects of the program are persistent, as we see no decrease in the magnitude of effects seven years after the introduction.

• Firms and Wage Inequality in Central and Eastern Europe. - with Iga Magda (SGH Warsaw School of Economics) and Simone Moriconi (IÉSEG). Journal of Comparative Economics, 2021. Link. PDF. Replication package.
Show abstract
We use large linked employer-employee data to analyze wage inequality patterns in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries between 2002 and 2014. We show that, unlike in many other advanced economies, wage inequality levels have decreased in almost all CEE countries. These reductions in wage inequality resulted from disproportionately large increases in wages at the bottom of the wage distribution, and from decreases in between-firm wage inequality. We further find that the declines in wage inequality were driven by large wage structure effects that compensated for changes in the composition of workers.

Working Papers

• Labor Market Outcomes of Same-Sex Couples in Countries with Legalized Same-Sex Marriage. - with Honorata Bogusz (University of Warsaw). PDF.
Show abstract
We study the labor market outcomes of same-sex couples using data from large representative household surveys. We use high-quality data representing more than two-thirds of the world's population with access to same-sex marriage on three continents. Same-sex couples are less likely to be inactive and work more hours than different-sex couples, largely due to the differences in the probability of having a child. Men in same-sex couples are up to 60 percent more likely to be unemployed than men in different-sex couples. These unemployment gaps cannot be explained by occupational sorting or other observable characteristics.

• Automation and Income Inequality in Europe. - with Karina Doorley (Trinity College Dublin), Piotr Lewandowski (IBS Warsaw), Dora Tuda (Trinity College Dublin), Philippe Van Kerm (University of Luxembourg). PDF.
Show abstract
We study the effects of robot penetration on household income inequality in 14 European countries between 2006–2018, a period marked by the rapid adoption of industrial robots. Automation reduced relative hourly wages and employment of more exposed demographic groups, similarly to the results for the United States. Using robot-driven wage and employment shocks as input to the EUROMOD microsimulation model, we find that automation had minor effects on income inequality. Household labour income diversification and tax and welfare policies largely absorbed labour market shocks caused by automation. Transfers played a key role in cushioning the transmission of these shocks to household incomes.

• #IamLGBT: Social Networks and Coming Out. - with Przemysław Siemaszko (SGH Warsaw School of Economics). PDF. Text analysis: keywords dictionaries.
Show abstract
In recent decades, the number of people disclosing their LGBTQ identity has increased substantially. We investigate the role of peer effects in coming out decisions using a model of a game social learning via networks. We use newly collected data from two waves of a spontaneous Twitter coming out campaign to test the prediction that observing peers coming out increases the probability of an individual disclosing their LGBTQ identity. We combine data on users' pre-campaign networks with the information on the exact time of costly coming out actions to construct a time-varying measure of the exposure to peers coming out as LGBTQ. A one standard deviation increase in the exposure increases the probability of coming out by almost 20%. We also exploit the non-overlapping network structure of users' peers groups as an exogenous source of variation, and we confirm the baseline results. We argue that the estimated effects are due to changes in beliefs about the costs of disclosure.

• Labor Supply Effects of a Universal Cash Transfer. PDF.
Show abstract
I investigate the labor supply effects of the introduction of a large unconditional cash benefit. I exploit the unique design of the child benefit program in Poland to identify the income effects of the monthly transfer in a difference-in-differences design. On average, the marginal propensity to earn out of unearned income was equal to -0.14. For every extra 100 dollars in monthly child benefit transfers households receive, they spend 43 dollars on consumption and save 43 dollars. Additional evidence shows that the program had a positive impact on investments in human capital and home production efficiency.

Work in Progress

• Wealth Inequalities and Political Extremism. - with Paweł Bukowski (University College London) and Filip Novokmet (University of Zagreb)

• Universal Child Benefits and Child Poverty: Accounting for Fertility and Labor Supply Adjustments.

Policy Papers and Other Writing

• Refugees from Ukraine on the Polish labour market. - with Piotr Lewandowski (IBS Warsaw). Social Insurance. Theory and Practice, 2022. PDF.